Issuers Pull Back on Originations as Card Line Sizes Shrink

The credit card industry saw strong increases in originations in 2025, but issuers may not see a similar rate of growth this year, according to a new report from TransUnion. 

The credit reporting agency released its set of credit originations forecasts this week. The company’s findings contain data points that issuers may want to take into account when fine-tuning their own growth expectations for the remainder of the year.

TransUnion forecasts that credit card originations will grow by just 2% in 2026, far below the 9% the credit reporting agency forecasted for annual originations in the card space for 2025. 

But some good news for credit card issuers is that TransUnion still foresees the card market expanding this year. That wasn’t the case in 2023 and 2024 when annual originations on cards declined in comparison to prior years.

The credit reporting agency’s forecast for card origination growth in 2026 lags behind the origination growth the company expects to see in the mortgage and unsecured personal loan spaces this year. 

Jason Laky, Executive Vice President and Head of Financial Services at TransUnion, suggested in a news release announcing the report that the changes in the credit landscape in 2026 may have more to do with issuers and their appetite for risk than demand from consumers.  

The average number of new account credit lines fell by over $100 to $5,587 from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the same period in 2025.  

“We expect lending activity to remain measured across most categories as lenders take a disciplined approach to profitable growth, using more data and services to better manage risk and fraud,” Laky explained.

“At the same time, consumer demand for credit remains strong across risk tiers and will likely strengthen further if interest rates fall more than expected in the coming quarters,” he added.

But TransUnion also highlighted that average new account credit lines in the fourth quarter of 2025 fell to $5,587 from more than $5,700 in the same period in 2024.

The drop in new credit line amounts suggests that issuers are seeking to rein in risk by giving new accounts less purchasing power on their cards. That data point is worth watching in 2026 to determine if issuers will continue to shorten the leash on new account lines.

TransUnion’s report also called attention to a shift in the credit profile of U.S. consumers. The average VantageScore 4.0 credit score dropped two points to 700 from the end of 2024 to the same point in 2025. And TransUnion said the median VantageScore figure also fell by two points over that time period.

Though two points may seem like a relatively small difference, TransUnion said the decline signals a meaningful change, albeit a subtle one, in the overall credit health of consumers.

“After several years marked by credit behaviors influenced by stubbornly high inflation and elevated interest rates, we may be seeing signs of a return to more traditional growth,” Michele Raneri, Vice President and Head of U.S. Research and Consulting at TransUnion, said in the release. 

“As these more typical patterns return, it’s more important than ever for lenders to leverage advanced tools, including trended data, to more accurately assess evolving risk profiles,” Raneri continued.

The competition to win the business of consumers with the highest credit scores may intensify throughout the year.

Making use of tools to mitigate risk in lending is certainly one step issuers should prepare to take in 2026 if they haven’t already. Issuers attempting to win the business of consumers in the market for luxury credit cards may also need to prepare for more intense competition 

A VantageScore credit score of 700 falls closer to the lower end of the range for the prime credit tier, according to the company. A score of 700 may not be strong enough for certain elite cards. Recent information from Discover reveals that many luxury cards may require an applicant to have excellent credit.

To attract customers with the best credit scores, we may soon see more cards that offer elite rewards hit the market. Some credit card companies have gotten off to a head start on that front.

In 2025, major credit card issuers including American Express and Chase rolled out enhanced versions of their premium cards. 

Credit card issuers may not be excited to learn that the pace of card originations could slow this year, or that the average credit score for U.S. consumers is heading lower. But TransUnion’s report also included some positive news around card balances.

The report revealed that the total balances on credit cards increased in 2025 and came in at $1.15 trillion in the year’s fourth quarter.

“We anticipate that balances will hold their current pace of growth in the near term,” Paul Siegfried, Senior Vice President and Credit Card Business Leader at TransUnion, said in the company’s release.