Revenue Growth for Payments to Decelerate Over the Next Four Years, Study Finds

Experts predict that global payments revenue will grow at a rate of 4% per year through 2029. That figure represents a steep decline from the 8.8% annual growth in worldwide payments revenue that occurred from 2019 to 2024, according to a new study from Boston Consulting Group.

Credit card issuers may have to adjust their strategies to align with changing market conditions to protect profits .

Issuers operating in the U.S. have a particularly challenging environment in front of them as Boston Consulting Group projects payments revenue growth in the country will be just 3.4% per year through 2029. 

For comparison, payments revenue grew at 10.3% annually in the U.S. over the period stretching from 2019 to 2024.

The slowdown in payments revenue growth around the world may be due in part to how well credit card issuers have been doing in recent years in their efforts to make credit card payments attractive to consumers.

Credit card companies have introduced a number of innovations to make their products the payment instruments of choice for many people today.

The Boston Consulting Group study indicates that revenue growth for payments will slow more in the U.S. than in many other regions of the world over the coming years.

Security measures such as tokenization can make card transactions more secure, bringing peace of mind to cardholders. And the upscale benefits that some cards offer, including access to airport lounges and exclusive events, continue to prove popular with cardholders. 

Despite everything issuers have brought to market to make credit card programs more enticing, revenue growth rates exceeding 10% may not be a realistic goal going forward.

Inderpreet Batra, a Managing Director and Senior Partner at Boston Consulting Group, is one of the authors of the Boston Consulting Group study.

In comments to Payments Dive, Batra said, “Payments growth in North America is slowing because the market is already so advanced.”

“The cash-to-card migration that fueled revenues for years has essentially peaked — today, less than 10% of consumer spending in the U.S. is still in cash,” Batra added.

Credit card issuers that expect revenue to enter a period of decline in the near future may seek ways to improve their efficiency levels.

The Boston Consulting Group highlighted that issuers can bring substantial improvements to their authorization rates through the use of advanced analytics.

Declined credit card transactions happen for various reasons, such as when a cardholder has spent up to their credit limit. But issuers can take steps that allow them to decrease declines resulting from issues such as expired card credentials and false positives in fraud detections.

Issuers that remove problems that can lead to declined transactions may not just lower their costs — they can also improve customer retention, according to the Boston Consulting Group report.

Of course, issuers can also focus on rewards benefits they can bring to their card programs to make them more appealing. 

The race to win new business from consumers interested in luxurious card benefits has been a tight one in 2025. Leading issuers, including American Express and Chase Bank, have rolled out new premium card products to court cardholders interested in benefits that link them with high-end travel experiences and exclusive events.

But issuers should note that the way they’ve grown in the past stands to change as we progress through the back half of the 2020s.

The strong consumer spending that benefited many issuers in the U.S. in the earlier part of the decade may be eroding.

“North America will continue to expand in absolute terms, but the opportunity here is less about chasing volume and more about creating value,” Batra said.