Despite Fewer Deals, NRF Sees Holiday Sales Topping $1T

For credit card issuers, the holiday shopping season can be a time to raise their revenue figures before the year comes to a close. But the anticipation of this year’s holiday shopping period may have credit card companies feeling uneasy as some retailers plan to offer fewer deals this November and December than they typically do. 

The unofficial start to the holiday shopping season arrives on Black Friday, which falls on Nov. 28 this year. Many people will head to shopping malls or hop online at some point during the day after Thanksgiving to take advantage of the deals companies offer.

Bloomberg recently reported that the impact of tariffs is causing some companies in the U.S. to hold back on offering discounts to shoppers this Black Friday. And those that are moving ahead with special offers may be peeling price reductions back from levels shoppers saw in previous years.

Technically, higher prices on goods can lead to increases in revenues for credit card issuers, but that’s only if consumer purchasing behavior doesn’t fall off due to a lack of savings opportunities.

Neil Saunders, Managing Director at GlobalData, a data analytics and consulting firm, told Bloomberg that retailers are in a tough position heading into the final weeks of 2025.

“On the one hand they want to protect margins, but on the other hand they know that the environment is very competitive and they know the consumer is really looking for those discounts to nudge them into spending,” Saunders said.

Credit card issuers can extend promotions to cardholders to encourage them to pay with their cards more often as the end of the year approaches

But credit card issuers don’t have to solely rely on retailer discounts to drive spending this holiday season. They can also make moves of their own to encourage people to open their wallets and spend more with their cards.

For instance, Bank of America held a 24-hour promotion earlier this month that offered cardholders boosted rewards when they used their credit cards to make purchases. 

And, for a limited time, shoppers who sign up for an Amazon Prime Visa can receive a $250 gift card, which is an extra $100 more than what the card typically offers to new cardholders.

In addition to grappling with the effects that tariffs may have on the consumer shopping this holiday season, credit card issuers also face elevated challenges from competitors in the payments space.

Buy now, pay later programs have made great strides in 2025. And a new survey from PayPal indicates that 50% of consumers plan to turn to a BNPL solution while shopping for the holidays.

Members of Gen Z use BNPL options more than other consumer groups, which may be a cause for concern for issuers ahead of this year’s holiday shopping period. But members of Gen Z may not be doing too much shopping this holiday season anyway.

A recent report from Deloitte shows that, as a whole, the generation plans to spend 34% less on shopping for the holidays this year than they had spent during the same time in 2024. 

And a new forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF), a trade association that represents the interests of retailers in the U.S., also stands to inject some optimism into the strategy centers of credit card issuers ahead of the holiday shopping season.  

The NRF issued a press release earlier this month to announce its expectation that holiday sales in the U.S. will top $1 trillion in 2025 for the first time ever. The organization estimates that retail sales will increase in November and December this year by between 3.7% and 4.2% over the same period in 2024.

The National Retail Federation expects 2025 U.S. holiday sales to reach more than $1 trillion for the first time.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” Matthew Shay, President and CEO at the National Retail Federation, said in the release.

The NRF’s forecast suggests that credit card issuers may be able to achieve year-over-year gains in holiday card spend, despite the fact that retailers may not be encouraging as much consumer spending through Black Friday promotions as they have in recent years.

“We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones,” Shay added.