Conflicting 2025 Travel Outlooks Leave Card Issuers at a Crossroads

Business travel forecasts in 2025 show contradictory trends from source to source. American Express reports strong optimism, with more than 95% of corporate leaders expecting growth or stability.

But other sources — including the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), PYMNTS, , and Navan — paint a more cautious picture, pointing to declining optimism and muted forecasts.

The disconnect raises a larger question for card issuers: What will future business travel really look like?

The stakes are high. Corporate and consumer travel drive key revenue streams like interchange fees, premium card adoption, and loyalty program engagement. But with remote work here to stay and economic signals mixed, it’s harder than ever to bet confidently on the right travel-linked card strategy.

Amex’s May 2025 Trendex survey linked face-to-face meetings to concrete returns. Executives signaled that face time enhanced client relationships and measurable sales outcomes. By those metrics, travel isn’t just sustainable — it’s worth the investment.

But that sentiment exists parallel to a corresponding reality: travel dollars will be scrutinized closer. Close to 60% of businesses signaled that they’ll keep honing their travel spend.

Global Business Travel Association forecasts a less robust growth pattern. Global travel spend will possibly reach $1.57 trillion by the end 2025, but its development rate was adjusted to 6.6% from 10.4%. Executives interviewed reflected a sharp fall in confidence — down to 28% in July from 67% last November.

PYMNTS also noted a shift in tone. Executives continue to make strategic travel a priority, but higher prices, trade policy, and inflation are dampening enthusiasm for wider corporate travel.

This pattern holds true within the credit card industry as well. Fewer luxury card initiatives, tougher reimbursement policies, and fewer employee benefits can deter T&E card volume. Portfolios that are typically important for loyalty and interchange suffer when executives curb spending.

COVID did not stop business travel; it reset expectations. Zoom, Teams, and Google Meet became constants. Hybrid working arrangements became reality. The end product is a streamlined approach to company mobility.

Amex’s own figures corroborate the trend. Nearly 90% of surveyed decision-makers said they keep tighter controls over costs as a priority, and a resolute majority (60%) said they expect further pressures on travel expenditures into the foreseeable future.

Travel is not just a business driver; companies use it to attract and retain talent (80%). Recruitment of young talent and maintaining morale are as critical as face time with customers.

As business travel reconfigures, consumer tourism is raising its own red flags. The U.S. will lose $12.5 billion of international visitor spend in 2025, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council.

That shortfall represents a 22.5% decline compared with the previous peak and is the only decline among 184 economies forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025.

Business travel isn’t the only segment facing uncertainty, as consumer tourism slows in the U.S.

The Las Vegas Strip offers a case in point. Hotel occupancy fell 14.6% year over year in June, foot traffic is down on the Strip, and the dramatic drop in Canadian travelers is damaging to local businesses. Tipping revenues fell even as new tax incentives are being rolled out by the government. The future appears precarious to many.

The downturn in travel doesn’t only hurt tourism. Merchants are bracing themselves as up to $20 billion of retail spending could disappear if inbound tourism weakens further, according to a PYMNTS report.

Rising hotel and restaurant costs have taken tourists to austere spending, and political currents like immigration policy further add friction to inbound demand.

This is all related to credit card issuers. Premium travel benefits and co-branded cards support customer retention, high spending, and annual fees. If travel goes down, then so does the reason to maintain those cards.

Issuers will have to make up their minds whether to expand travel-related products or transition to schemes of daily rewards. Should they continue to push luxury travel rewards, or pivot to flexible-redemption hybrid cards? At the same time, U.S. outbound travel is growing — delivering a partial offset.

Dampened international inbound travel and weakened corporate demand persist as pressures within the overall travel ecosystem. Because consumer spending represents roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP, travel trends act like a canary in a coal mine. The current signal from the travel sector is garbled and uncertain.