American Express Forges Ahead with Card Program Innovation Despite Economic Uncertainty

Political maneuvers and policy changes have created economic instability over the first three-and-a-half months of 2025. J.P. Morgan Research released a report last week indicating that the probability that the U.S. will sink into a recession in 2025 stands at 60%. 

President Donald Trump has rolled back portions of some of the tariffs he introduced on April 2, but he’s raised tariff rates on China since then. According to Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist with J.P. Morgan, the tariffs may prove harmful to businesses and consumers outside the U.S. as well.

“Even with the latest step-back from the draconian Liberation Day measures, what remains is still enough to push the U.S. and China — and thus likely the global economy — into a recession this year,” Kasman said in remarks accompanying J.P. Morgan’s report.

The risk of a recession can cause consumers and businesses to favor conservative financial plans, putting off projects that require significant cash outlays. But not every company intends to slash expenditures in 2025.

American Express held its quarterly earnings call on Thursday. The company posted strong results as its first-quarter revenues were up 7% year-over-year. But it was the comments that Stephen Squeri, American Express’s CEO, made during the company’s earnings call that caught my attention.

Squeri said on the call, as first reported by American Banker, that American Express will continue with its plans to update card programs despite doubts about the health of the global economy. Squeri said the decision to continue with program refreshes aligns with the company’s response to economic crises in years past.

“We’re not going to stop the refresh strategy,” Squeri said. “From an ROI perspective, I don’t think there would be a reason to do that. We haven’t stopped refreshes even in the face of the pandemic.” 

American Express reportedly has more than 30 product updates in development. The company announced its purchase of software firm Center on April 16. The acquisition stands to strengthen the spend management capabilities Amex offers it business customers.

The credit card industry will be paying close attention to see whether a downturn in the economy will impact American Express’s bid to provide a network for the Apple Card. A report published in The Wall Street Journal earlier this month outlined that American Express is competing against Mastercard and Visa to provide services to support the Apple Card.

The Apple Card is a prized possession among credit card issuers and networks. J.D. Power named the card the “Best Co-Branded Credit Card for Customer Satisfaction with No Annual Fee” in 2024.

Goldman Sachs backs the Apple Card, but recent comments from its CEO, David Solomon, indicated that the financial institution may seek to end its partnership with the card before its contract expires in 2030. 

That’s left issuers and networks vying to secure a partnership with the innovative tech company to support the Apple Card. The Wall Street Journal report said that Visa offered Apple approximately $100 million to be the card’s network partner.

American Express is competing with Visa and Mastercard to partner with the Apple Card.

But that was way back on April 1 — one day before Liberation Day took place. Some companies have changed their strategies post-Liberation Day to account for unfavorable economic forecasts.

We’ll be watching closely for updates on the Apple Card as 2025 progresses. None of the interested suitors have yet unveiled new strategies when it comes to their pursuit of partnering with Apple to support its card.

But it’s a safe bet — based on American Express’s business-as-usual approach for program updates it conveyed last week — that it’ll be keeping its hat in the Apple Card ring.