TransUnion Report: Credit Card Originations Rebound, Led by a Subprime Surge

Issuers are adjusting their strategy heading into mid-2025. TransUnion’s just-released Credit Industry Insights Report indicates a 4.5% YoY rise in overall card originations during Q1 — the first comprehensive growth seen since early 2022.

Momentum is visible across the credit spectrum, with super prime originations maintaining steady gains and subprime activity rising sharply — up 15.2% year over year.

This return follows a prolonged period of conservative strategy growth. With interest rates and repayment behavior becoming more stable, issuers appear increasingly comfortable reentering nonprime pools.

Much of the renewed activity is anchored in the prime and super prime tiers. Super prime originations rose 5.0% year over year, extending their three-quarter growth streak. Average balance per borrower reached $6,473, as revolving consumer balances reached $173.5 million.

Indicators are positive for overall engagement. Utilization remained relatively stable during Q2, and managed line extension appears to be the norm.

Balances increased 4.5% year over year in Q2 2025 — with much less urgency than was seen during pandemic recovery years. The moderate growth reflects a mix of tighter underwriting and subdued consumer demand despite persistent cost-of-living headwinds. Meanwhile, high rates of low-limit account openings bode for cautious, incremental volume growth rather than a rapid expansion.

Key performance indicators swung positive. Serious delinquencies (90 or more DPD) decreased nine basis points year over year to 2.17%. TransUnion also showed a 9% decrease in charge-off volume year over year. Both indicators are characteristic of gradual stabilization, despite originations activity growth.

Issuers need to remain vigilant for delinquency drift. Early indications reveal growth is concentrated disproportionately in broad-based credit accounts, with engagement rising across prime and super prime tiers.

Q3 originations are predicted to rise, in line with normal seasonal trends that drive spend but accelerate risk. Should repayment behavior hold its course, additional subprime migration is likely — with reduced lines and better risk controls.

“Delinquency rates declined, signaling that despite ongoing economic uncertainty, consumers continue to demonstrate resilience,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion.

Origination recovery across credit tiers will likely shift volume targets and channel priorities. Issuers that wish to regain market share should consider rescaling risk scoring and reassessing acquisition cost structures — especially for prime-targeted offers and retention strategies.

As charge-off pressure moderates, some lenders are already directing budgets toward direct mail, reward incentives, and selective promotional offers.

With rates stabilizing and risk measures improving, growth opportunities are reemerging. But deeper reentry into subprime segments will hinge on agile underwriting and sharp insight into evolving payment patterns.